If you think property prices are too high, you are not alone.
The URA indexes for rest of central region and outside central region are at an all-time high.
According to the new NUS Singapore Residential Price Index (SRPI), its index for non-central region has also surpassed way beyond the 2007 peak.
A little advice for those looking for their first home: If you can’t wait, try to buy within your means. Never assume that interest rates will always stay low.
When even the above-average earners feel they can’t afford a home, something must be wrong and something ought to be done.
And the government has indeed implemented several cooling measures, including releasing more land for sale, lowering the mortgage loan-to-value limit from 90% to 80% (a reversal of the 2005 relaxation), and imposing a stamp duty on properties flipped within a year.
Nobody knows if property prices will stay high or even go higher. But we can make an educated guess.
If we look back to 2005, the year when the government implemented policy changes to boost the property market, we will see that policies take time to have an impact.
In 2005, the government relaxed the restriction on foreign ownership of apartments (no more 6-storeys rule), upped the maximum loan-to-value limit from 80% to 90%, reduced the cash down payment from 10% to just 5%, and allowed non-related singles to jointly purchase residential properties.
Also in 2005, the government gave the green light for the 2 integrated resorts.
The effects of all these took about 2 years to weave into the property market, when prices went up a steep slope in 2007 before finally reaching a record high in 2008.
Of course, other factors also played a part, like a buoyant US economy and its subprime traps.
In a similar way, the effects of recent policy changes will take time to affect the market.
When do you think the property market will face a correction?
67 Comments
prices are high now because of low interest, high liquidity, many foreigners and lately SGD strengthening.
should go higher in short term.
Is the goal of this article to anticipate when the prices will go down ?? i hope they do. singaproe property market is spine breaking for most people nowadays
My fiance and I take home 150k a year and we’re struggling to buy our first home. With the cost of private property so high and COVs for hdb reaching ridiculous prices. We really don’t know what to do and we can’t possible throw all our spare cash into a condo or cov for a hdb flat. It’s utterly frustrating to be caught in the middle with no where to go. Both of us work in the west and prices here are off the charts and living way out in pasir ris or sengkang will mean we spend too much time on commute (we don’t own a car).
Nothing short of divine intervention will help us in getting a place of our own.
It shd be a cycle. I say abt 2 years.
to wtn: have you considered jurong west? i think the prices there are still ok.
i just checked. prices are about 300k+ for 4-rm and 400k+ for 5-rm in jurong west. quite ex, but still “affordable” (as mentioned by our MND minister 🙂 ).
there are many who earn less but buy condos…
at least to majority of singaporeans you guys are in an enviable position
if there weren’t so many foreign workers in the jurong area we definitely won’t mind staying in jurong since it is fairly near our work place. being picky? maybe.
we have to either wait another 2 years or so to build up our cash reserves or take a personal loan. hdb flats should be reserved for citizens and not let prs and others screw up the market big time. we also don’t have a whole lot of cpf as we just came back to sg from overseas 2.5 years ago.
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The prices will never correct unless there’s a fundamental change in our govt’s immigration, economic, social policies. Right now, we are behaving just like China in terms of our policies. Fundamentally, we are a pro-speculation society filled with foreign investors’ hot money. Asia is rich right now. And if you look at china’s burgeoning rich-poor gap, and how unhappy their middle class is with the housing prices and yet being unable to make any noise about it (communist mah)…you will surely realize that we are but an island version of that…so, yep..as long as we have Mah Bow Tan, Lee Hsien Loong and Gang running the show unopposed, it will only get worse. Just mark my words
to sing: how confident are you that the prices will NEVER correct? if you are extremely confident, why not buy a few properties now? 🙂
wtn> 150k a year and struggling to pay for a home? Hah how much harder is it for regular folk…
@Jo im not trying to take a dig at anyone, i understand it is even harder for folks who earn less. our problem is the inital cash outlay needed for a home, having access to a 90% loan or being able to buy direct from hdb will alleviate the problems. we did not start earning this amount 2 years back, in fact we were eligible for the hdb grant, but isnt it crazy to apply for a flat without knowing that you are going to be with this person? we worked very hard to get where we are in the last few years. i can’t figure out where people get the money to buy a house, get married at the same time and service a car loan.
>i can’t figure out where people get the money to buy a house, get married at the same time and service a car loan.
easy. if they aren’t high earners, they either have rich parents or are heavily in debt.
I think there are more and more people like wtn who became “high earners” only in recent years and do not have the cash in hand – like those with existing properties, or had loads of cash from an en-bloc sale – and don’t qualify for new HDB (not even 600k Pinnacle@Duxton!!), find it ridiculous to buy a 400-500k 30-year old resale HDB with avg 50k COV, and are stretched to buy 800k-1mil condos in reasonable locations.
Where do we go from here? Sigh.
@Jo, “regular folk” (under the income ceiling) at least still are eligible for new HDB or the 30k-40k CPF grant. Once you burst the ceiling (which is quite easy for graduate couples nowadays), you get jack-shit.
it’s all about choice.
My wife and I paid over 500k for a 30yr old resale 5 room HDB near the city area.
And yes, almost 50k for the COV.
But we’re happy with the purchase.
>i can’t figure out where people get the money to buy a house, get married at the same time and service a car loan.
Most average singaporeans under the age of 30 will not be able to afford a resale flat, car and get married at the same time without help from parents.Those who possess all the above are as someone mentioned, have well off parents or are in debt.
Reason is simple. If one grad from a local uni, he or she will need to pay off the $14-20k of tuition fee loan upon graduation. Those who have only a diploma probably will find it even harder to make more than $2.5k/mth. Those who were “sponsored” by parents to go overseas for uni studies would not have this issue.
Resale flat COV is $10-30k (conservative estimate)plus renovation, furnishings, wedding package all need money.
Notice I haven’t even talk about the car yet, which would incur a further $1k+/mth, thereby lowering one’s savings.
This is the reality facing young people.
We’ll prob get married first and rent a place till. We build up more cash. We’re not getting help from parents and are doing this ourselves. Best we can do in a tough situation.
nocash: cool, always good to be independent! Never depend on parents if you can help it.
Singapore properties are 19.6 percent overvalued:
http://www.economist.com/business-finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15911113&source=hptextfeature
I have the same problem as nocash: earning 100K per year but not have enough cash yet to afford property. Ridiculous, I’m already looking to move to Europe where I can afford a house and garden with my savings & CPF.
“Singapore has gone from being one of the most depressed housing markets in the third quarter of 2009 to being the second-frothiest in the three months to March.”
– quoted from the economist article.
strange : 100k is quite gd salary. U shld hv stashed away quite a substantial amt if you have worked for say 5 yrs at least.
they say affordable because they assume house will be paid by 2 people. i personally think they should base it on 1 salary. plus it is in their benefit that property px go up. hdb will reap more gains, overall, everything is in their benefit.
True 100k is quite okay but I only started earning it two-three years ago. Before that I worked in Europe and taxes are so high there (40%) that I couldn’t save a lot.
I’m considering of saving money here, move back to Europe and buy property there because you get a lot more value for money…
It’s sad because I like it in SG but housing costs are such a pain.
Somehow, some people think its their right to have affordable housing in prime areas like Queenstown, Kim Keat etc. You have to work harder or smarter if you want to live in those prime areas. Otherwise, go live in Sengkang, Woodlands or Jurong. The foreigners coming into Singapore are no longer your maids & bangla road diggers, they are university graduates earning big bucks. Do you expect the higher income foreigners to live in Woodlands, while moderate income Singaporeans live in prime areas? I think its our right to have affordable housing, but its not our right to buy housing at below market rates in prime areas to reap big bucks in the future
i’m getting out in a few years time as well, the most basic necessity for man is a roof over one’s head and yet it has become such a drag in sg. the coe for a small car as of today is enough for me to buy a camry in the states. 300-400k USD can easily get you a mansion in the midwest, and you have spare cash to buy an audi s5 plus another suv for a family car.
@Oldman: Truth is the so called market rates are getting more and more out of reach for the masses. Our salaries have not move upwards enough to cope with rising costs of living (esp housing). Having said that, HDB should be kept for citizens, high performing expats should go slug it out in the private market.
Oldman, you sound like MBT 🙂
The article says: “According to the new NUS Singapore Residential Price Index (SRPI), its index for non-central region has also surpassed way beyond the 2007 peak.”
Nobody is arguing the rationale that you have to pay more for prime areas. The problem is that prices EVERYWHERE are spiraling out of control. Unless you are one of the few lucky ones who is able to apply for a new flat, there is no possibility to own property and get on the ladder.
A reminder that for the current prices you can own property in Europe where living standards are higher & life more relaxed instead of a crumbling resale HDB flat in ‘original condition’.
“Otherwise, go live in Sengkang, Woodlands or Jurong.”
I live in Jurong East and never once think of it as in the same league as Sengkang and Woodlands… but whatever. 🙂
is jurong east better or worse?
If you don’t mind foreign workers staring at your wife, daugther or girlfriend than Jurong East is perfect for you…
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Rising HDB prices can be simply traced to lack of supply – after the fiasco of over-supplying 50,000+/year units of HDB between 1995-2000 leading to citizens’ outcry of HDB wasting tax-payer money , gov has drastically reduced the supply of HDB in 2000-2009. No one was complaining then, as the backlog of sengkeng/jurongwest flats are yet to be cleared.
Today, almost all the HDB flats have been sold, and gov has changed policy to build flats only after orders are received i.e. BTO flats. Meanwhile, around 22k of marriages take place every year, and hundreds of thousands of foreigners became PR every year. Not to mention the remaining Singaporeans turning 35.
These are a very large pool of HDB buyers (>40k), and gov is only providing 12k of BTO flats this year, and are only available in 3yrs time.
No wonder the flats are moving to all time high. To solve this issue, gov shld ramp up to build at least 22k/yr flats for every newly wedded couple.
The gov is using the mortage payments/monthly average salary ratio (<30%) to justify the flats are still affordable.
For a moment, gov seems to ignore that we are living in the lowest interest rates era. USD SOR 3mth is 0.35% as of today. Once US Fed start rise to raise fed fund (ard next yr), this ratio will hit above 35% in no time. Fingers-crossed that the monthly salary will rise in tandem…
If not, God bless the Singaporeans who bought the SGD 600-700k HDB flat.
but with positive developments including the completion the 2 IRs, the annual F1 night races and YOG, the economy will recover quickly and so will wages.
the coming elections may give the PAP government the mandate to once again open the flood gates to foreign talent of all levels to achieve a projected “planning parameter” population of 6.5m.
property prices will undoubtedly go much higher in a few years. some observers are even saying prices may double in 5 years!
invest now, or you’ll regret wasting this golden opportunity. you heard it here first!
Emerging market bubble could cause new financial crisis, bank warns
Surging flows of capital from the west into emerging economies threaten asset-price bubbles that could trigger a new phase to the global financial crisis, one of the UK’s leading banks said today.
Economists at Standard Chartered warned that urgent action was needed to address the potentially destabilising impact of “hot money” attracted by stronger growth and higher interest rates.
“A problem is brewing across much of the emerging world,” the bank said in a report. “A host of economies, both large and small, are on the receiving end of a surge of capital and liquidity flows.”
Gerard Lyons, chief economist at Standard Chartered, said Asia was the main recipient of western capital, but there was also evidence of speculative activity in Latin America, Eastern Europe and Africa.
A combination of a prolonged period of low interest rates in the west and strong growth in emerging markets meant the money would continue to flow in. “The size of the flows could become more significant,” he added. “There is a significant risk, even though it is a consequence of economic success.”
The report noted that many countries did not have the capacity to absorb the capital inflows, with the result that the money boosted share and property prices, adding to inflationary pressures.
“The longer it takes to address this, the bigger the problem will be. Just as excess liquidity contributed to problems in the western developed economies ahead of the financial crisis, excess liquidity has the potential to cause fresh economic and financial problems across the emerging world.”
Massive flows of capital from emerging economies, especially those in Asia, helped to inflate the asset bubbles in the west that led to the financial crash of 2007. Standard Chartered said global liquidity flows had now reversed, with emerging economies now on the receiving end. Recipients included countries with current account surpluses such as China, and those running current account deficits such as Vietnam and India.
Lyons said China was the emerging economy investors were looking at for signs of trouble. “China is not a bubble economy but it is an economy with bubbles.” But he added that the problem was not confined to Asia, and that hedge funds were now looking at “frontier markets” in Africa.
While emerging markets needed foreign direct investment to help them grow, Standard Chartered said the influx of hot money was a big worry. “Although hot money is regarded as temporary, it persists until the incentive to speculate is eliminated.”
Lyons said emerging countries needed to learn lessons from the west and use a range of policy tools – including floating exchange rates, deepening and broadening financial markets, and selective use of capital controls – to prevent speculative flows destabilising their economies. Singapore, China and Hong Kong had already introduced policies aimed specifically at reining in booming property markets, and Lyons said macro-prudential measures were a vital part of the policy response.
“There is a key difference with the west: for many emerging economies, this is a consequence of success, reflecting optimism about growth prospects.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/apr/26/standard-chartered-emerging-markets-bubble-warning
Singapore will become like Japan.
Takes 3 generation to pay off housing loan
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Beijing Property Prices Collapse
We’ve been waiting for tightening measures to hit the Beijing property market, especially after the city’s real estate association itself said the situation was a bubble.
It looks like the government’s clampdown is starting to bite, hard. Average Beijing transaction prices collapsed 31% month on month:
Capital Vue:
The average transaction price of commercial residential properties in Beijing for the week ended May 9 fell 1,790 yuan per square meter or 9.6 percent week-on-week to 16,898 yuan per square meter, reports The Beijing News, citing statistics released by Beijing Real Estate Information Network.
Compared with the week ended April 11, the average transaction price of commercial residential properties in Beijing plunged 31.43 percent to 7,744 yuan per square meter.
In the last weeks of April, the transaction volume of commercial residential properties in Beijing decreased by 10.34 percent, 11.39 percent and 30.82 percent respectively. Average transaction price was flat at between 22,000 yuan to 23,000 yuan per square meter.
Next up: Shanghai.
They’re introducing further restrictions on property later this month, such as hiking taxes on owners of multiple properties, according to Shanghai Security News.
http://www.businessinsider.com/beijing-property-prices-collapse-shanghai-youre-next-2010-5
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Hi. I am from Hong Kong, now is a Singaporean.
I bought a 5 room hdb flat in Pasir Ris in late 2006. The price was 300k at that time. I was able to pay up the housing loan within 3 and a half years with 55k help from my parents. I do not earn high salary as you can see my comment of english. The tricks is to change the way you spend your hard earn cash. Do you really find clubbing interesting? Is LV, Cholie, Amani really necessary? Why go out to eat so often when you can enjoy cooking at home? Live simple live ba.
Sunny, you are a typical hardworking Hong Konger who made good in Singapore.
3.5 years and you paid up 245k! solid.
How much do you make if I may ask?
I was earning 3k plus at the time and slowly got raise to 4k plus this year.
I should be happy as a lot of people more capable than me can’t even get my salary.
I totally agree with Sunny, its a matter of choice. I am not a high earner (not going to disclose but believe me, I am certainly not rich by any standards) sacrificed space for an apt in a very centralised location, been driving a fully paid up car for eons, eat cheap but treat myself to good food once in a while, shop cheap and still have enough to put aside for rainy days and mortgage loan. Your cash resources are limited, its all about prioritising.
Whats the point of driving an expensive car and live in a hdb flat located in some far flung corner in Singapore where you will almost need a passport to get there? Your hdb logo is a dead give away. I’m not saying that people who live in hdb flats are poor, on the contrary I think many are richer than me.
Your car is a depreciating asset, but a home even in bad times still gives you shelter. Unless you need to cash out the funds or its an investment property, it seriously doesnt matter how the market moves cos you will need a roof over your head. But then again to each his own. If you are not rich like me, you just have to make choices that best suit your needs and choices that will make you happy. Cant have your cake and eat it.
I suck at math. But using Sunny’s salary (4k plus), let’s just put it at 4.5. 4.5 * 42 months equate to less that 200K (not counting interest), how is it possible that he/she paid off the 245K loan with less than 245K much less not eating and drinking.
As to what asset is good, it depends on how you use it. There is no such thing as real intrinsic value to any asset except if it produces cash flow. An exquisite car can be a great asset if you can use it to attract rich boys/girls or perhaps give an impression that you are a successful businessman/woman such that others will want to do business with you. A friend of mine did it and promptly got an upgrade from the in laws from hdb to landed house.
At the end of the day though, it’s what you can live with. Comparing yourself with others is unending because there is going to be somebody that will have something you don’t have.
Well, Sunny probably has lots of savings before he bought the house. But, it’s still amazing he paid it all up within 3-4 years.
I’m not sure I understand what Bollocks meant by: “.. where you will almost need a passport to get there?”
People absolutely can’t read nowadays, Sunny mentioned that he had to borrow 55K from his/her parents. If he/she has a LOT of savings, why do so?
???: I don’t appreciate you making a personal attack here. Can we agree to remain neutral on this forum and merely state our opinions in a non-provocative fashion?
This is what you said: “..how is it possible that he/she paid off the 245K loan..”
Since we realize that Sunny’s total earnings is at most 200K (based on your calculation) within that 3-4 years period, this implies that Sunny should have savings before buying the house, or Sunny made a fair bit of money from other means, perhaps investment, etc.
Or maybe we have different opinions on what quantifies as “a lot of savings”. Perhaps your yardstick is higher than mine.
actually it doesnt make a lot of sense paying off ur hdb loan. It’s one of the safest debts around.