The latest figures from URA indicate that in spite of the low number of transactions, property prices continued to rise in the first
quarter 10 weeks of this year.
In fact, the URA property index rose to an almost-all time high of 178.
The index was higher at only one other time, and that record high was set in 1996, just months before the Asian financial crisis struck.
Will history repeat itself?
There’s a word of caution from the URA press release:
Past data have shown that the difference between the quarterly price changes indicated by the flash estimate and the actual price changes could be significant when the change is small. The public is advised to interpret the flash estimates with caution.
2008 may be a flat year for property. Means not much increase or decrease in prices. I believe there may be a bit more upside for landed houses though. They are considered cheap when compared to luxury condos. Generally prices may soften and start to taper off from 2009 onwards, since many projects TOP at about that time. Last year because rental is good, most landlord renewed a 2 year lease. 2007 + 2 = 2009.
However, last year was a record breaking year for en-blocs. Record number of instant millionaires in the history of Singapore. Most of last years property buyers are them. With the windfall, they bought a replacement home and used their spare cash to buy several new units with the intention to rent out. Therefore they have holding power. They are cash rich. They can don’t sell. They can hold for 10-20 years they are fine. Their intention is to collect rental income from the property that they have bought fully paid for with their sales proceeds so they can retire. Even if rental drops to half of today’s level, it’s alright. Most already fully pay for the unit. No installment.
Remember most of them bought a HDB to stay, full cash. With an average of say $2 mil sales proceed, after buying HDB still left with about $1.5 mil. They have holding power. They don’t have the need to sell cheap. No matter what happens they already secured a roof over their heads. They won’t be too bothered whether price go up or down, as long every month collect rental can already. More rental spend more, less rental spend less. No big deal.
I just have this gut feeling prices will not go down to the 2002-2005 low levels. Not for a long long time. Yes, what goes up must come down. But doesn’t mean will go down to previous low levels. Go down by only 5% is also go down.
hmm. most of the enbloc ppl have 2 mil and choose to stay in hdb ?
i find the statement very doubtful.
Yes, in fact those HDB record breaking prices published by newspapers are bought by these enbloc people.
The normal singaporean will pay $150k cash above valuation? The average singaporean won’t even have $50k cash savings. When they have $10k, they go buy a car or travel.
I think it will be interesting if you can compile a statistic of how much is the increase in salary for year ended 2007? ie. Private property rose 31% in year 2007, so how much is the salary increase?
“wait and wait”, thanks for the suggestion. Please check out my recent post: